Beşiktaş 3-2 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beşiktaş face Rizespor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rizespor make the trip to Tüpraş Stadyumu to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig (matchday 35). The match kicks off on Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Beşiktaş at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Rizespor (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rizespor away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Beşiktaş, 1.30 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 0 for Rizespor and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Jan 2024, ended Beşiktaş 4–0 Rizespor — a Beşiktaş win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 34 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 34 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 44% versus Rizespor 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 44% | Rizespor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.93 xG and Rizespor 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.937 / defence 0.826 | Rizespor attack 0.881 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.233. Rizespor's defence rating of 1.366 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beşiktaş's projected output up. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 70 games and Rizespor's last 34.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 60% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 15%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.66 | Draw 4.12 | Rizespor 6.46. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (60%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Beşiktaş's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 40% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 35 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 60% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Beşiktaş 1.93 / Rizespor 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.937 / def 0.826 | Rizespor attack 0.881 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Rizespor xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Rizespor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Rizespor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 3 May 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Beşiktaş 3 - 2 Rizespor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Rizespor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 35) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 60% chance of winning, Rizespor a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Beşiktaş and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beşiktaş vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.88x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 70 games and Rizespor's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.12
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.83
0.90
Rizespor xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
2%
44.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.90 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 15W 6D 13L from 34 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 13L across 34 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.44 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 9W 2D 5L from their last 16 home games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 3W 3D 10L across their last 16 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.32 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Rizespor in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Beşiktaş vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 15W 6D 13L in their last 34 games (1.50 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 14W 7D 13L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Rizespor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.81 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Rizespor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Beşiktaş and Rizespor, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 15 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won Rizespor 0-4 Beşiktaş on 9 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
1
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Rizespor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 4, Rizespor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 May 2026: Rizespor 2-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Rizespor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 38%, Rizespor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Beşiktaş) and 69% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Rizespor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Rizespor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 50% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beşiktaş and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 69% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 88% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Rizespor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Rizespor 3-2 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.93 xG and Rizespor 0.90 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.94 / defence 0.83 against Rizespor attack 0.88 / defence 1.37, drawn from 70/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 60% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 15%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 44%, Rizespor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.50 PPG, Rizespor 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.