Beşiktaş 3-2 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rizespor make the trip to Tüpraş Stadyumu to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Friday 3 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Beşiktaş at Tüpraş Stadyumu this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
Rizespor (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rizespor away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Beşiktaş, 1.30 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Beşiktaş 2W, Rizespor 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2024, ended 4–0 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 44% versus Rizespor 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 44% | Rizespor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.93 xG and Rizespor 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.937 / defence 0.826 | Rizespor attack 0.881 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.233. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Beşiktaş games / 34 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 60% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 15%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Rizespor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Beşiktaş 40% | Rizespor 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 60% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Beşiktaş 1.93 / Rizespor 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.937 / def 0.826 | Rizespor attack 0.881 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Rizespor xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Rizespor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Rizespor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Beşiktaş 3 - 2 Rizespor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Rizespor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 60% chance of winning, Rizespor a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Beşiktaş and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Rizespor?
Record (3 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 1 | Rizespor 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Rizespor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.88x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 70/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.12
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.83
0.90
Rizespor xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
2%
44.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.90 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 15W 6D 13L from 34 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 13L across 34 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.44 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 9W 2D 5L from 16 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 3W 3D 10L across 16 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.32 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Rizespor in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 15W 6D 13L in their last 34 games (1.50 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 14W 7D 13L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Rizespor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.81 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Rizespor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 0-4 on 9 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
1
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 4, Rizespor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Rizespor 2-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Rizespor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 38%, Rizespor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Beşiktaş) and 69% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Rizespor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 50% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 69% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Rizespor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Rizespor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Rizespor 3-2 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.93 xG and Rizespor 0.90 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.94 / defence 0.83 against Rizespor attack 0.88 / defence 1.37, drawn from 70/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 60% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 15%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 44%, Rizespor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.50 PPG, Rizespor 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.