Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beşiktaş face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tupras Stadium plays host to Beşiktaş versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Tupras Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Konyaspor (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Beşiktaş's favour (1.70 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Beşiktaş register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Konyaspor in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Beşiktaş have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 9 meetings, with Konyaspor managing just 2 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Beşiktaş winning.
The historical record gives Beşiktaş a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 64% and Konyaspor 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 49% | Konyaspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.71 xG and Konyaspor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.075 / defence 0.905 | Konyaspor attack 0.851 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.301. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Beşiktaş games / 55 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Konyaspor 5.26. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 80% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tupras Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Beşiktaş 1.71 / Konyaspor 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.075 / def 0.905 | Konyaspor attack 0.851 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Konyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Tupras Stadium.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Tupras Stadium.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 50% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Beşiktaş and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
Record (9 meetings): Beşiktaş 5W | Draws 2 | Konyaspor 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.85x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
50%
1.98
31%
3.25
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.71
1.00
Konyaspor xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
3%
29.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.00 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 26W 17D 12L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 17W 14D 24L from 55 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 1.93 PPG from 27 outings (16W 4D 7L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 6W 5D 16L from 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.24 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Konyaspor in 65%.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 26W 17D 12L in their last 55 games (1.73 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 17W 14D 24L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Konyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.93 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Beşiktaş
2
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 6, Konyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Beşiktaş, 67% for Konyaspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Beşiktaş) and 52% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Beşiktaş's games and 67% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Beşiktaş's matches and 52% of Konyaspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Konyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Konyaspor 2-1 at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.71 xG and Konyaspor 1.00 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.07 / defence 0.91 against Konyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.23, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 19%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 49%, Konyaspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.