Beşiktaş 2-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beşiktaş face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tüpraş Stadyumu plays host to Beşiktaş versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Tüpraş Stadyumu this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Konyaspor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Beşiktaş's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Beşiktaş, 1 for Konyaspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Beşiktaş winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 51% versus Konyaspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 47% | Konyaspor 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.96 xG and Konyaspor 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.191 / defence 0.937 | Konyaspor attack 1.082 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.292. Data: 45 Beşiktaş games / 46 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 52% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Konyaspor 4.00. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Konyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 52% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Beşiktaş 1.96 / Konyaspor 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.191 / def 0.937 | Konyaspor attack 1.082 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Konyaspor xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 52% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Beşiktaş and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Beşiktaş 3W | Draws 2 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.08x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
52%
1.93
23%
4.31
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.27
1.31
Konyaspor xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
14%
7.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
4%
28.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.31 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 21W 10D 14L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Konyaspor's form line: 12W 15D 18L from 45 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 1.95 PPG from 22 outings (13W 4D 5L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 5W 8D 9L from 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.09 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 21W 10D 14L in their last 45 games (1.62 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 12W 15D 18L in their last 45 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Konyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.95 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Beşiktaş
2
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 6, Konyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 50%, Konyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Beşiktaş) and 46% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Konyaspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 54% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 46% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Konyaspor 2-0 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.96 xG and Konyaspor 1.31 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Konyaspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.19 / defence 0.94 against Konyaspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.13, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 52% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 25%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 47%, Konyaspor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Konyaspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.