Beşiktaş 1-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 19 as Beşiktaş welcome Kasımpaşa to Tüpraş Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 January 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Tüpraş Stadyumu this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Beşiktaş have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Beşiktaş, 1 for Kasımpaşa and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 5–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 60% versus Kasımpaşa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 60% | Kasımpaşa 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.65 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.984 / defence 1.032 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.951 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.260. Data: 53 Beşiktaş games / 53 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 27%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Kasımpaşa 3.70. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 50% | Kasımpaşa 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 5 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Beşiktaş 1.65 / Kasımpaşa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.984 / def 1.032 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.951 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 5 January 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Beşiktaş 1 - 3 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 46% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa?
Record (4 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (0.98) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.74
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.89
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
5%
18.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.24 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 32W 11D 10L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 18W 12D 23L from 53 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kasımpaşa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.27 PPG from 26 outings (18W 5D 3L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 7D 12L from 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.40 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 32W 11D 10L in their last 53 games (2.02 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.27 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Kasımpaşa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 54%, Kasımpaşa 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Beşiktaş) and 54% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 31%; Kasımpaşa in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 42% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Beşiktaş's matches and 54% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Beşiktaş.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Beşiktaş 1-3 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.65 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 27%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 60%, Kasımpaşa 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Kasımpaşa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.