Beşiktaş 4-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beşiktaş face Antalyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor meet at Besiktas Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Beşiktaş (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 3D 2L at Besiktas Park — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antalyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Antalyaspor's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Beşiktaş. A 0.80 PPG lead over Antalyaspor (2.00 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Beşiktaş, 2 for Antalyaspor and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 61% versus Antalyaspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 50% | Antalyaspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.23 xG and Antalyaspor 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.155 / defence 0.927 | Antalyaspor attack 0.579 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.149. Antalyaspor's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 64 Beşiktaş games / 64 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 49% | Draw 35% | Antalyaspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.04 | Draw 2.86 | Antalyaspor 6.25. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Antalyaspor's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Antalyaspor 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Besiktas Park • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 49% | Draw 35% | Antalyaspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Beşiktaş 1.23 / Antalyaspor 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.155 / def 0.927 | Antalyaspor attack 0.579 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Antalyaspor xG
35%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 10 April 2026 at Besiktas Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Beşiktaş 4 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Besiktas Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 49% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 16% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor?
Record (9 meetings): Beşiktaş 4W | Draws 3 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 1.16x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.58x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.3%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
49%
2.05
35%
2.84
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
1.85
0.62
Antalyaspor xG
2.05
49%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
5%
21.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 9.7 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.4 | 12.0 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.62 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beşiktaş come into this having played 64 games, going 32W 18D 14L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.12 PPG from 64 outings (19W 15D 30L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Beşiktaş's home form reads 19W 5D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.72 points per game from 32 outings (5W 8D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.02 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 32W 18D 14L in their last 64 games (1.78 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 19W 15D 30L in their last 64 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Antalyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.94 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Beşiktaş have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-2 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 69%, Antalyaspor 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Beşiktaş) and 41% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 38% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 41% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Antalyaspor 4-2 at Besiktas Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.23 xG and Antalyaspor 0.62 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antalyaspor outscored their 0.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.16 / defence 0.93 against Antalyaspor attack 0.58 / defence 0.77, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 49% | Draw 35% | Antalyaspor 16%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 50%, Antalyaspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.66 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.