Başakşehir 0-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu plays host to Başakşehir versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Başakşehir (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this season.
Trabzonspor have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Başakşehir. A 0.70 PPG lead over Trabzonspor (2.50 vs 1.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Başakşehir lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 41% versus Trabzonspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 39% | Trabzonspor 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.75 xG and Trabzonspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.073 / defence 0.823 | Trabzonspor attack 1.134 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.253. Data: 72 Başakşehir games / 71 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 49% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Trabzonspor 4.17. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 40% | Trabzonspor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 49% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Başakşehir 1.75 / Trabzonspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.073 / def 0.823 | Trabzonspor attack 1.134 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Trabzonspor xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Başakşehir 0 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 49% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Başakşehir and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
Record (5 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 2 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.13x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 72/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.72
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.92
1.17
Trabzonspor xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
4%
24.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.17 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir come into this having played 71 games, going 34W 15D 22L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 1.62 PPG from 71 outings (35W 10D 26L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.62 for Trabzonspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Başakşehir's home form reads 21W 5D 9L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 1.17 points per game from 35 outings (12W 5D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.75 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 34W 15D 22L in their last 71 games (1.65 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 35W 10D 26L in their last 71 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Trabzonspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.94 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 0-3 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
3
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 37%, Trabzonspor 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Başakşehir) and 66% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 69% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Başakşehir's recent games and 66% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trabzonspor defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Başakşehir 0-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.75 xG and Trabzonspor 1.17 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.07 / defence 0.82 against Trabzonspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.03, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 49% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 24%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Trabzonspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 39%, Trabzonspor 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.65 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.