Başakşehir 1-2 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Galatasaray (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Galatasaray.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Galatasaray at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 5W 1D 4L at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Galatasaray stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Galatasaray have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Galatasaray's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Galatasaray's 2.80 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Başakşehir's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Başakşehir have won 0, Galatasaray 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Galatasaray winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Galatasaray in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 35% versus Galatasaray 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 38% | Galatasaray 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 0.84 xG and Galatasaray 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.854 / defence 0.957 | Galatasaray attack 1.218 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.338. Galatasaray's defence strength of 0.709 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Galatasaray have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Başakşehir games / 40 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 17% | Draw 33% | Galatasaray 51%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 5.88 | Draw 3.03 | Galatasaray 1.96. Galatasaray hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Galatasaray are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Galatasaray offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 30% | Galatasaray 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 17% | Draw 33% | Galatasaray 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Başakşehir 0.84 / Galatasaray 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.854 / def 0.957 | Galatasaray attack 1.218 / def 0.709 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Galatasaray xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Galatasaray kick off?
Başakşehir vs Galatasaray kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Başakşehir 1 - 2 Galatasaray.
Where is Başakşehir vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Galatasaray part of?
Başakşehir vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 17% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 51% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Başakşehir and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Galatasaray?
Record (4 meetings): Başakşehir 0W | Draws 2 | Galatasaray 2W.
What form are Başakşehir and Galatasaray in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Galatasaray (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (0.85) and Galatasaray's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Galatasaray's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
17%
6.01
33%
3.07
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.40
1.56
Galatasaray xG
6.01
17%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
3%
28.63
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.1 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.56 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 19W 8D 13L from 40 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Galatasaray, meanwhile, have gone 31W 5D 4L across 40 games — 2.45 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Galatasaray, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Galatasaray by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Başakşehir heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 12W 2D 6L from 20 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Galatasaray's away record stands at 14W 3D 3L across 20 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 2.30 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Galatasaray in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Galatasaray
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 19W 8D 13L in their last 40 games (1.62 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 31W 5D 4L in their last 40 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Galatasaray away?
Galatasaray's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.90 PPG; Galatasaray away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Galatasaray runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Galatasaray go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Galatasaray won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Galatasaray specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Başakşehir
2
Draws
8
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Galatasaray?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 0, Galatasaray have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Galatasaray 3-0 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Başakşehir 25% BTTS, Galatasaray 35%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Başakşehir) and 65% (Galatasaray).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Galatasaray in 65%; Başakşehir have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Galatasaray?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 35% of Galatasaray's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Başakşehir's recent games and 65% of Galatasaray's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Galatasaray edge out Başakşehir 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Başakşehir 1-2 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 0.84 xG and Galatasaray 1.56 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against Galatasaray attack 1.22 / defence 0.71, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 17% | Draw 33% | Galatasaray 51%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 38%, Galatasaray 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Galatasaray's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.