Başakşehir 1-0 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Ankaragücü fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ankaragücü make the trip to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Başakşehir have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Ankaragücü's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ankaragücü's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Başakşehir against 0.90 for Ankaragücü. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Başakşehir, 0 for Ankaragücü and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ankaragücü — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 33% versus Ankaragücü 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 38% | Ankaragücü 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.58 xG and Ankaragücü 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.914 / defence 0.984 | Ankaragücü attack 0.808 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.258. Data: 62 Başakşehir games / 24 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 25% | Ankaragücü 24%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Ankaragücü 4.17. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 20% | Ankaragücü 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 25% | Ankaragücü 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Başakşehir 1.58 / Ankaragücü 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.914 / def 0.984 | Ankaragücü attack 0.808 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ankaragücü xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Başakşehir vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Ankaragücü?
Başakşehir 1 - 0 Ankaragücü.
Where is Başakşehir vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Ankaragücü part of?
Başakşehir vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 51% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Başakşehir and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Ankaragücü?
Record (1 meetings): Başakşehir 1W | Draws 0 | Ankaragücü 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Ankaragücü in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Ankaragücü (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Başakşehir's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Ankaragücü's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Ankaragücü's attack (0.81x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
51%
1.97
25%
3.97
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.58
1.00
Ankaragücü xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
5%
20.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.00 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Ankaragücü?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir come into this having played 24 games, going 12W 5D 7L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ankaragücü sit at 1.04 PPG from 24 outings (7W 4D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Ankaragücü — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Başakşehir's home form reads 8W 1D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Ankaragücü have taken 0.92 points per game from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.12 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü in 62%.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 12W 5D 7L in their last 24 games (1.71 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 7W 4D 13L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Ankaragücü away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.08 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Ankaragücü been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ankaragücü in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ankaragücü — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
1
Draws
1
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Ankaragücü?
From 4 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Ankaragücü have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Ankaragücü 2-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Ankaragücü?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ankaragücü see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 17%, Ankaragücü 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Başakşehir) and 50% (Ankaragücü).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Ankaragücü?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 67% of Ankaragücü's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Başakşehir's recent games and 50% of Ankaragücü's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Ankaragücü tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ankaragücü in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Ankaragücü 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Ankaragücü 1-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.58 xG and Ankaragücü 1.00 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ankaragücü landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Ankaragücü attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 51% | Draw 25% | Ankaragücü 24%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 38%, Ankaragücü 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.