Başakşehir 4-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Başakşehir face Alanyaspor.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Başakşehir and Alanyaspor meet at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 August 2024 at 18:15 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Başakşehir have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Başakşehir have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Alanyaspor (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Alanyaspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Başakşehir, 1.70 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Başakşehir, 3 for Alanyaspor and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2024, ended Başakşehir 3–2 Alanyaspor — a Başakşehir win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 44% versus Alanyaspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 38% | Alanyaspor 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.36 xG and Alanyaspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.054 / defence 0.915 | Alanyaspor attack 1.039 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.252. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 39 games and Alanyaspor's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 38% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.61 | Draw 3.21 | Alanyaspor 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 40% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 80% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Başakşehir 39 games, Alanyaspor 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights