Başakşehir 2-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 11 as Başakşehir welcome Adana Demirspor to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 1 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this season: 3W 0D 2L from 5 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Adana Demirspor — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 1L across 5 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 1.30 (Adana Demirspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Adana Demirspor trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 50% versus Adana Demirspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 60% | Adana Demirspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.62 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.027 / defence 1.056 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.966 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.119. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Başakşehir games / 10 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 48% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Adana Demirspor 3.70. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 20% | Adana Demirspor 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 48% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Başakşehir 1.62 / Adana Demirspor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.027 / def 1.056 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.966 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Adana Demirspor xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Başakşehir 2 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 48% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.03x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
48%
2.06
25%
4.05
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.76
1.14
Adana Demirspor xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
5%
18.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.14 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 4W 0D 6L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor's form line: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.20 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.80 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 May 2024, when Başakşehir won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
1
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 5, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Başakşehir 2-3 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 20%, Adana Demirspor 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Başakşehir) and 60% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Adana Demirspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 80% of Adana Demirspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Başakşehir's recent games and 60% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Adana Demirspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Adana Demirspor 2-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.62 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.14 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.30, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 48% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 27%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 60%, Adana Demirspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.20 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.