Antalyaspor 0-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Antalyaspor face Rizespor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 13). Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rizespor have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rizespor away from home: 2W 0D 4L from their last 6 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Antalyaspor, 1.60 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Rizespor and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Jan 2022, ended Antalyaspor 1–2 Rizespor — a Rizespor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (last 12 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Rizespor — key trading statistics (last 12 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 50% versus Rizespor 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Antalyaspor 33% | Rizespor 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 2.10 xG and Rizespor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.000 / defence 0.964 | Rizespor attack 0.868 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.195. Rizespor's defence rating of 1.399 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Antalyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Antalyaspor's last 48 games and Rizespor's last 12.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 62% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 16%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.63 | Draw 4.45 | Rizespor 6.24. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Antalyaspor's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 6 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antalyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 67% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 13 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 62% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Antalyaspor 2.10 / Rizespor 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.000 / def 0.964 | Rizespor attack 0.868 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Rizespor xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Antalyaspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Antalyaspor 0 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Rizespor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 13) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 62% chance of winning, Rizespor a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Antalyaspor and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Antalyaspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (1.00) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.87x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Antalyaspor's last 48 games and Rizespor's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
62%
1.63
22%
4.45
16%
6.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.10
1.00
Rizespor xG
1.63
62%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
6.24
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
12%
8.15
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
2%
50.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antalyaspor vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.00 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 5W 3D 4L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Rizespor's form line: 5W 2D 5L from 12 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.42 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.83 PPG from their last 6 home games (3W 2D 1L).
On the road, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 4L from their last 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.92 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
Antalyaspor (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antalyaspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Antalyaspor vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Antalyaspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Rizespor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.83 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Rizespor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Antalyaspor and Rizespor, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Rizespor have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won Rizespor 3-0 Antalyaspor on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
1
Draws
5
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Antalyaspor vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Rizespor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Antalyaspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Rizespor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 50%, Rizespor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Antalyaspor) and 83% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rizespor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antalyaspor and Rizespor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Antalyaspor's games and 67% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Antalyaspor and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 83% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 100% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antalyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 13, as Antalyaspor and Rizespor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 2.10 xG and Rizespor 1.00 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Rizespor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Rizespor attack 0.87 / defence 1.40, drawn from 48/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 62% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 16%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 33%, Rizespor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rizespor's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.50 PPG, Rizespor 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.