Antalyaspor 1-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 39%, yet in-form Konyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antalyaspor and Konyaspor meet at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 5W 2D 3L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On a straight form reading, Konyaspor are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 46% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 46% | Konyaspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.54 xG and Konyaspor 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.041 / defence 0.935 | Konyaspor attack 1.119 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.428. Data: 37 Antalyaspor games / 37 Konyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Konyaspor 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Konyaspor (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 60% | Konyaspor 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Antalyaspor 1.54 / Konyaspor 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.041 / def 0.935 | Konyaspor attack 1.119 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Konyaspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 August 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Antalyaspor 1 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Antalyaspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Konyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Konyaspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (1.04) and Konyaspor's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.12x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
39%
2.59
25%
4.02
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.04
1.49
Konyaspor xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.49 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 8D 18L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.41 PPG from 37 outings (12W 16D 9L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.41 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Antalyaspor's home form reads 8W 3D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.56 points per game from 18 outings (7W 7D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.35 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 11W 8D 18L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 12W 16D 9L in their last 37 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Konyaspor's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
6
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 56%, Konyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Antalyaspor and 67% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor in 33%; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Antalyaspor's matches and 67% of Konyaspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 2, as Antalyaspor and Konyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.54 xG and Konyaspor 1.49 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Konyaspor attack 1.12 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 36%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 46%, Konyaspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.11 PPG, Konyaspor 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.