Antalyaspor 2-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Antalyaspor host Kasımpaşa at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 August 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Antalyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Antalyaspor at Corendon Airlines Park this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antalyaspor at 1.10 PPG versus Kasımpaşa's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Antalyaspor, 3 for Kasımpaşa and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Antalyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Antalyaspor trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Kasımpaşa trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antalyaspor 53% and Kasımpaşa 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 56% | Kasımpaşa 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.43 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.882 / defence 0.925 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.086 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.347. Data: 36 Antalyaspor games / 36 Kasımpaşa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 35%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Kasımpaşa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Antalyaspor 1.43 / Kasımpaşa 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.882 / def 0.925 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.086 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Kasımpaşa xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (8 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 3 | Kasımpaşa 3W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 0.88x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
39%
2.57
26%
3.91
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.78
1.35
Kasımpaşa xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.35 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor come into this having played 36 games, going 12W 8D 16L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. Antalyaspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.31 PPG from 36 outings (11W 14D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. Kasımpaşa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.22 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Antalyaspor's home form reads 10W 4D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 1.39 points per game from 18 outings (6W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.72 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 69%.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Pre-Season
Kasımpaşa
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 11W 14D 11L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.89 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Antalyaspor
4
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-0 Antalyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 56%, Kasımpaşa 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Antalyaspor and 67% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Antalyaspor's games and 61% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Antalyaspor's matches and 67% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Kasımpaşa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.43 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.35 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.09 / defence 0.99, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 35%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 56%, Kasımpaşa 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.22 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.