Antalyaspor 3-2 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Hatayspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 25 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antalyaspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 4W 4D 2L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Antalyaspor, 0.90 for Hatayspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Hatayspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 60% versus Hatayspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 45% | Hatayspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.25 xG and Hatayspor 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.821 / defence 0.862 | Hatayspor attack 0.895 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.278. Data: 40 Antalyaspor games / 40 Hatayspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 32% | Hatayspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Hatayspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Antalyaspor 70% | Hatayspor 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 32% | Hatayspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Antalyaspor 1.25 / Hatayspor 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.821 / def 0.862 | Hatayspor attack 0.895 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Hatayspor xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Antalyaspor 3 - 2 Hatayspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Antalyaspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor?
Record (6 meetings): Antalyaspor 3W | Draws 2 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.90x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
41%
2.44
32%
3.17
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.24
0.99
Hatayspor xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.99 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 14D 14L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.05 PPG from 40 outings (9W 15D 16L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.05 for Hatayspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Antalyaspor's home form reads 8W 9D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.65 points per game from 20 outings (2W 7D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hatayspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.18 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Hatayspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 12W 14D 14L in their last 40 games (1.25 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 9W 15D 16L in their last 40 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.65 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Antalyaspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 4-1 on 11 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 5, Hatayspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Hatayspor 2-3 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 55%, Hatayspor 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Antalyaspor) and 40% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 30% of games; Hatayspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 45% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 40% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Hatayspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Hatayspor 3-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.25 xG and Hatayspor 0.99 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatayspor outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.82 / defence 0.86 against Hatayspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 32% | Hatayspor 28%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 45%, Hatayspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Hatayspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG, Hatayspor 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.