Antalyaspor 1-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Antalyaspor face Ankaragücü.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Antalyaspor host Ankaragücü at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig (matchday 31). Kick-off is Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ankaragücü stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Ankaragücü have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antalyaspor at 1.20 PPG versus Ankaragücü's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Ankaragücü and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2023, ended Antalyaspor 4–0 Ankaragücü — a Antalyaspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ankaragücü in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 50% versus Ankaragücü 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 42% | Ankaragücü 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.29 xG and Ankaragücü 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.810 / defence 0.852 | Ankaragücü attack 0.987 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.181. Data: built from Antalyaspor's last 66 games and Ankaragücü's last 66.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 32% | Ankaragücü 27%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.42 | Draw 3.12 | Ankaragücü 3.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Antalyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Ankaragücü 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 31 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 32% | Ankaragücü 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Antalyaspor 1.29 / Ankaragücü 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.810 / def 0.852 | Ankaragücü attack 0.987 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Ankaragücü xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü FAQs
What time does Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Antalyaspor 1 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü part of?
Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 31) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Antalyaspor and Ankaragücü will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (0.81) and Ankaragücü's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Antalyaspor's last 66 games and Ankaragücü's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
41%
2.42
32%
3.12
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.28
0.99
Ankaragücü xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
7%
13.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.99 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 21W 19D 26L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Ankaragücü's form line: 19W 18D 29L from 66 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.24 PPG, Ankaragücü on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 32 home games (14W 10D 8L).
On the road, Ankaragücü have gone 8W 7D 17L from their last 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.20 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü in 62%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Ankaragücü
Current Season
Antalyaspor (Home) vs Ankaragücü (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Ankaragücü
Current Season
❓ Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü Form FAQs
What form are Antalyaspor and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 21W 19D 26L in their last 66 games (1.24 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 19W 18D 29L in their last 66 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Ankaragücü away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.62 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Nov 2023, when Antalyaspor won Ankaragücü 0-4 Antalyaspor.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Ankaragücü specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
1
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Ankaragücü?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Antalyaspor have won 1, Ankaragücü have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Ankaragücü last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 April 2024: Antalyaspor 1-1 Ankaragücü.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 53%, Ankaragücü 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Antalyaspor) and 53% (Ankaragücü).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Ankaragücü Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antalyaspor and Ankaragücü matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Antalyaspor's games and 69% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Antalyaspor and Ankaragücü matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 53% of Ankaragücü's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Ankaragücü matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 64% of Ankaragücü's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor and Ankaragücü share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor and Ankaragücü finished level at 1-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.29 xG and Ankaragücü 0.99 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.85 against Ankaragücü attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 32% | Ankaragücü 27%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 42%, Ankaragücü 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.24 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.