Antalyaspor 3-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Alanyaspor travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 April 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's home record at Corendon Airlines Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.10 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Antalyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Alanyaspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Alanyaspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2022, ended 2–3 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 53% versus Alanyaspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 50% | Alanyaspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 2.38 xG and Alanyaspor 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.100 / defence 0.980 | Alanyaspor attack 0.857 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.300. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Antalyaspor games / 65 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 66% | Draw 18% | Alanyaspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | Alanyaspor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.38 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 66% | Draw 18% | Alanyaspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 60% | xG Antalyaspor 2.38 / Alanyaspor 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.100 / def 0.980 | Alanyaspor attack 0.857 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Alanyaspor xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Antalyaspor 3 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 66% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.38. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
66%
1.52
18%
5.50
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.48
1.09
Alanyaspor xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.50
18%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
9%
10.85
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
1%
68.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.09 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 24W 16D 24L from 64 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 26W 15D 23L across 64 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.38 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 16W 7D 8L from 31 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 10W 7D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.66 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 24W 16D 24L in their last 64 games (1.38 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 26W 15D 23L in their last 64 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.77 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Antalyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antalyaspor
4
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 5, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 61%, Alanyaspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Antalyaspor) and 61% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Antalyaspor's games and 58% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Antalyaspor's matches and 61% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Alanyaspor 3-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 2.38 xG and Alanyaspor 1.09 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against Alanyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.29, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 66% | Draw 18% | Alanyaspor 16%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 50%, Alanyaspor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.38 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.