Antalyaspor 3-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 37%, yet in-form Alanyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Alanyaspor travel to Antalya Stadyumu to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's home record at Antalya Stadyumu: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Süper Lig appearances (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.57 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Alanyaspor's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Antalyaspor's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 62% versus Alanyaspor 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 54% | Alanyaspor 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.19 xG and Alanyaspor 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.900 / defence 1.271 | Alanyaspor attack 0.778 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.096. Data: 13 Antalyaspor games / 13 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 37% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Alanyaspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alanyaspor (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 71% | Alanyaspor 43%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 37% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Antalyaspor 1.19 / Alanyaspor 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.900 / def 1.271 | Alanyaspor attack 0.778 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Alanyaspor xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Antalyaspor 3 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 37% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
37%
2.68
31%
3.27
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.28
1.08
Alanyaspor xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.08 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 3L across 13 games — 1.85 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Alanyaspor by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antalyaspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 3W 2D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.54 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Alanyaspor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.43 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Antalyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antalyaspor
4
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 5, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 71%, Alanyaspor 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Antalyaspor) and 29% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Antalyaspor's games and 43% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 29% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antalyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Alanyaspor 3-0 at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.19 xG and Alanyaspor 1.08 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alanyaspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.27 against Alanyaspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.14, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 37% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 32%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 54%, Alanyaspor 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Antalyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.