Ankaragücü 0-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ankaragücü at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ankaragücü host Hatayspor at Eryaman Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 21 December 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ankaragücü — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ankaragücü's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Eryaman Stadyumu this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Hatayspor have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ankaragücü at 1.30 PPG versus Hatayspor's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ankaragücü have won 2, Hatayspor 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Ankaragücü winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ankaragücü trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hatayspor trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ankaragücü 63% versus Hatayspor 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 53% | Hatayspor 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.27 xG and Hatayspor 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.806 / defence 0.980 | Hatayspor attack 0.788 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.261. Data: 51 Ankaragücü games / 51 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 43% | Draw 30% | Hatayspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Hatayspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ankaragücü at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ankaragücü offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ankaragücü 60% | Hatayspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 43% | Draw 30% | Hatayspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Ankaragücü 1.27 / Hatayspor 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.806 / def 0.980 | Hatayspor attack 0.788 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Hatayspor xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor?
Ankaragücü 0 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor part of?
Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 43% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ankaragücü and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Hatayspor?
Record (2 meetings): Ankaragücü 2W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Ankaragücü and Hatayspor in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ankaragücü's attack rating (0.81) and Hatayspor's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.36
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.25
0.97
Hatayspor xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 0.97 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ankaragücü's recent record stands at 16W 12D 23L from 51 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 30L across 51 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ankaragücü on 1.18 PPG, Hatayspor on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ankaragücü have managed 8W 8D 10L from 26 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hatayspor's away record stands at 3W 4D 19L across 26 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ankaragücü come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.84 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 16W 12D 23L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 10W 11D 30L in their last 51 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Hatayspor away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.23 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ankaragücü and Hatayspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when Ankaragücü won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ankaragücü's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ankaragücü
1
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Hatayspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 2, Hatayspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Hatayspor 2-1 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Ankaragücü and Hatayspor?
Ankaragücü have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 62%, Hatayspor 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ankaragücü) and 69% (Hatayspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 27% of games; Hatayspor in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 31% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ankaragücü's matches and 69% of Hatayspor's.
Do Ankaragücü and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ankaragücü's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü and Hatayspor finished level at 0-0 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.27 xG and Hatayspor 0.97 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ankaragücü fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hatayspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Hatayspor attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 43% | Draw 30% | Hatayspor 28%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 53%, Hatayspor 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ankaragücü 1.18 PPG, Hatayspor 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.