Amed vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amed vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amed host Eyüpspor at Diyarbakir Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Eyüpspor have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Amed have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Amed in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Amed 33% | Eyüpspor 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amed 67% | Eyüpspor 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.54 xG and Eyüpspor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.123 / defence 0.960 | Eyüpspor attack 0.859 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Data: 3 Amed games / 37 Eyüpspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Amed 50% | Draw 26% | Eyüpspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Amed 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Eyüpspor 4.00. Amed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amed are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amed 33% | Eyüpspor 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 50% | Draw 26% | Eyüpspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Amed 1.54 / Eyüpspor 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.123 / def 0.960 | Eyüpspor attack 0.859 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Amed (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Eyüpspor xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Amed vs Eyüpspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Eyüpspor part of?
Amed vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 50% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Amed and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Eyüpspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Eyüpspor in?
Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Amed's attack at 1.12x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Amed's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.91
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Amed xG
Total xG
2.54
1.00
Eyüpspor xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
5%
18.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Amed and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Amed and 1.00 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amed come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amed carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Amed are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Amed or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Amed 33% BTTS, Eyüpspor 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Amed) and 33% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Amed have failed to score in 33% of games; Eyüpspor in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Amed's recent matches and 33% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Amed's recent games and 33% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amed and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.