Altay 1-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Altay vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trabzonspor make the trip to Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı to face Altay in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Altay have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay's home record at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı: 3W 1D 4L from 8 Süper Lig appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Altay are significantly better at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Trabzonspor (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's away record: 7W 1D 1L from 9 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.44 PPG). They are averaging 1.89 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Trabzonspor are the stronger side — 2.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Altay — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Altay 71% and Trabzonspor 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Altay 71% | Trabzonspor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Altay 0.91 xG and Trabzonspor 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Altay attack 0.820 / defence 1.312 | Trabzonspor attack 1.058 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.165. Data: 17 Altay games / 17 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Altay 20% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 53%. Fair-value odds: Altay 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Trabzonspor 1.89. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Altay 62% | Trabzonspor 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Altay vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Altay 20% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Altay 0.91 / Trabzonspor 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Altay attack 0.820 / def 1.312 | Trabzonspor attack 1.058 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Altay xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Trabzonspor xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Altay vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Altay vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What was the final score in Altay vs Trabzonspor?
Altay 1 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Altay vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What competition is Altay vs Trabzonspor part of?
Altay vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Altay vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Altay a 20% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Altay vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Altay and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Altay vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Trabzonspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Altay and Trabzonspor in?
Altay (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Altay's attack at 0.82x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.06x) against Altay's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
20%
4.90
26%
3.78
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Altay xG
Total xG
2.53
1.62
Trabzonspor xG
4.90
20%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
4%
24.68
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.9 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Altay vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Altay and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Altay and 1.62 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Altay vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Altay's recent record stands at 5W 3D 9L from 17 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 13W 3D 1L across 17 games — 2.47 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 1.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Altay heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Altay have managed 3W 1D 4L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 6W 1D 1L across 8 trips, a 2.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Altay are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 2.00 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Altay have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Altay
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Altay and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Altay have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 13W 3D 1L in their last 17 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Altay at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Altay at home: 1.25 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Altay or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Altay have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Altay
0
Draws
2
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Trabzonspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Altay have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Altay and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2022, when Trabzonspor 2-1 Altay.
Who has won more matches between Altay and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Altay 62%, Trabzonspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Altay) and 50% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Altay home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Altay play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Altay's games and 50% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Altay vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Altay's matches and 50% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Altay and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Altay have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Altay 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Altay 1-2 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Altay 0.91 xG and Trabzonspor 1.62 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Altay attack 0.82 / defence 1.31 against Trabzonspor attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Altay 20% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 53%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Altay 71%, Trabzonspor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Altay's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.