Alanyaspor 2-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
GAIN Park Stadium plays host to Alanyaspor versus Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Saturday 31 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at GAIN Park Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at GAIN Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sivasspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Sivasspor hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Sivasspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 58% versus Sivasspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 48% | Sivasspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.76 xG and Sivasspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.921 / defence 0.976 | Sivasspor attack 0.745 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.294. Data: 73 Alanyaspor games / 73 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 56% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Sivasspor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Sivasspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: GAIN Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 56% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Alanyaspor 1.76 / Sivasspor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.921 / def 0.976 | Sivasspor attack 0.745 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sivasspor xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 May 2025 at GAIN Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Alanyaspor 2 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at GAIN Park Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 56% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Alanyaspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Sivasspor?
Record (7 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Sivasspor 4W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Sivasspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.92) and Sivasspor's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.74x) against Alanyaspor's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.20
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.70
0.94
Sivasspor xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
3%
29.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.94 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alanyaspor come into this having played 73 games, going 23W 25D 25L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.22 PPG from 73 outings (23W 20D 30L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.22 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Alanyaspor's home form reads 14W 13D 9L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 0.92 points per game from 36 outings (9W 6D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Sivasspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 23W 25D 25L in their last 73 games (1.29 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 23W 20D 30L in their last 73 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.53 PPG; Sivasspor away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sivasspor won 0-3 on 31 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
4
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Alanyaspor 2-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 64%, Sivasspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Alanyaspor) and 58% (Sivasspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sivasspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Alanyaspor's games and 58% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Alanyaspor's matches and 58% of Sivasspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Sivasspor 2-0 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.76 xG and Sivasspor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sivasspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 0.98 against Sivasspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.19, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 56% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 20%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 48%, Sivasspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Sivasspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.29 PPG, Sivasspor 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.