Alanyaspor 1-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 32 as Alanyaspor welcome Samsunspor to GAIN Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 21 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at GAIN Park Stadium, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at GAIN Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 0.90 PPG, Samsunspor 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 0 for Samsunspor and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 57% versus Samsunspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 49% | Samsunspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.28 xG and Samsunspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.976 / defence 1.159 | Samsunspor attack 0.889 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.172. Data: 67 Alanyaspor games / 68 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Samsunspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 70% | Samsunspor 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: GAIN Park Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Alanyaspor 1.28 / Samsunspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.976 / def 1.159 | Samsunspor attack 0.889 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Samsunspor xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 21 April 2025 at GAIN Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at GAIN Park Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 38% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Alanyaspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Samsunspor?
Record (3 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Samsunspor 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.98x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
38%
2.62
27%
3.65
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.49
1.21
Samsunspor xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
10%
10.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.21 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 67 games, going 20W 23D 24L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.39 PPG from 67 outings (26W 15D 26L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.24 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 13W 11D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.97 points per game from 33 outings (8W 8D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.28 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Samsunspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 20W 23D 24L in their last 67 games (1.24 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 26W 15D 26L in their last 67 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.52 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, Samsunspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Samsunspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 64%, Samsunspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Alanyaspor) and 48% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 46% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 48% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Samsunspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Samsunspor 1-0 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.28 xG and Samsunspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Samsunspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.16 against Samsunspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.83, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 34%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 49%, Samsunspor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Samsunspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.24 PPG, Samsunspor 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.