Alanyaspor 0-3 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Konyaspor travel to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 16 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Alanyaspor at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Konyaspor are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 0 for Konyaspor and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Konyaspor trading profile (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 57% versus Konyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 63% | Konyaspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.48 xG and Konyaspor 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.949 / defence 1.003 | Konyaspor attack 1.131 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.379. Data: 70 Alanyaspor games / 70 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 40%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 40% | Konyaspor 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Alanyaspor 1.48 / Konyaspor 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.949 / def 1.003 | Konyaspor attack 1.131 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Konyaspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 16 May 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Alanyaspor 0 - 3 Konyaspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 36% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Alanyaspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Konyaspor 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.95x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
36%
2.78
24%
4.15
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.04
1.56
Konyaspor xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
8%
13.26
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.56 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 29W 15D 26L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Konyaspor's form line: 31W 21D 18L from 70 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.46 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.74 PPG from 34 outings (17W 8D 9L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 13W 10D 11L from 34 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.54 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 29W 15D 26L in their last 70 games (1.46 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 31W 21D 18L in their last 70 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.74 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Alanyaspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Konyaspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 56%, Konyaspor 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Alanyaspor and 65% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Alanyaspor's games and 65% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Alanyaspor's matches and 65% of Konyaspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Konyaspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Alanyaspor 0-3 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.48 xG and Konyaspor 1.56 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Konyaspor outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Konyaspor attack 1.13 / defence 0.91, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 40%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 63%, Konyaspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Konyaspor's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.46 PPG, Konyaspor 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.