Alanyaspor 2-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alanyaspor face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Konyaspor travel to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 10:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Alanyaspor at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Konyaspor stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 0.50 PPG, Konyaspor 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Alanyaspor have won 1, Konyaspor 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 May 2023, ended Alanyaspor 0–3 Konyaspor — a Konyaspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Konyaspor trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 49% versus Konyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 65% | Konyaspor 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alanyaspor surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Konyaspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.37 xG and Konyaspor 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.857 / defence 1.236 | Konyaspor attack 0.921 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.202. Alanyaspor's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Konyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 49 games and Konyaspor's last 49.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.82 | Draw 3.45 | Konyaspor 2.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Konyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 14 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Alanyaspor 1.37 / Konyaspor 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.857 / def 1.236 | Konyaspor attack 0.921 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Konyaspor xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Alanyaspor 2 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 14) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 36% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Alanyaspor and Konyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.86x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 49 games and Konyaspor's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
36%
2.82
29%
3.45
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.74
1.37
Konyaspor xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
9%
11.06
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.37 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 13W 12D 24L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Konyaspor's form line: 15W 19D 15L from 49 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.04 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 24 home games (10W 5D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Alanyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 8W 9D 7L from their last 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 13W 12D 24L in their last 49 games (1.04 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 15W 19D 15L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.46 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Feb 2022, when Alanyaspor won Alanyaspor 5-1 Konyaspor.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 6, Konyaspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 46%, Konyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Alanyaspor and 62% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Konyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 54% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Alanyaspor's matches and 62% of Konyaspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 64% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, as Alanyaspor and Konyaspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.37 xG and Konyaspor 1.37 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.24 against Konyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 35%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 65%, Konyaspor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.04 PPG, Konyaspor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.