Alanyaspor 3-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alanyaspor face Kasımpaşa.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu plays host to Alanyaspor versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig (matchday 5). Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Alanyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Alanyaspor at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Kasımpaşa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Kasımpaşa's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) — Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Kasımpaşa in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 2 for Kasımpaşa and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 May 2023, ended Alanyaspor 1–3 Kasımpaşa — a Kasımpaşa win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 52% versus Kasımpaşa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 65% | Kasımpaşa 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.17 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.937 / defence 0.833 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.791 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.370. Kasımpaşa's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 40 games and Kasımpaşa's last 40.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 37% | Kasımpaşa 25%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.62 | Draw 2.68 | Kasımpaşa 4.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 30% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 20% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights