Alanyaspor 3-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Hatayspor travel to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 April 2023, 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's home record at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 0.80 PPG versus Hatayspor's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 1, Hatayspor 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Hatayspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 59% versus Hatayspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 62% | Hatayspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.37 xG and Hatayspor 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.026 / defence 1.029 | Hatayspor attack 0.660 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.321. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Alanyaspor games / 63 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 70% | Draw 17% | Hatayspor 13%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Hatayspor 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 70% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 50% | Hatayspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 70% | Draw 17% | Hatayspor 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 54% | xG Alanyaspor 2.37 / Hatayspor 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.026 / def 1.029 | Hatayspor attack 0.660 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Hatayspor xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Alanyaspor 3 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 70% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Alanyaspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Hatayspor?
Record (3 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 2W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Hatayspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.03x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
70%
1.43
17%
5.74
13%
7.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.26
0.90
Hatayspor xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.74
17%
Draw
7.99
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
9%
10.67
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
1%
85.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.90 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 25W 15D 23L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor's form line: 21W 13D 29L from 63 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.43 PPG, Hatayspor on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.66 PPG from 32 outings (15W 8D 9L).
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 7W 4D 21L from 32 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hatayspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.19 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 25W 15D 23L in their last 63 games (1.43 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 21W 13D 29L in their last 63 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.66 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2022, when Alanyaspor won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
3
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, Hatayspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Hatayspor 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Hatayspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 59%, Hatayspor 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Alanyaspor and 59% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 41% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Alanyaspor's matches and 59% of Hatayspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Hatayspor 3-0 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 2.37 xG and Hatayspor 0.90 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hatayspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Hatayspor attack 0.66 / defence 1.40, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 70% | Draw 17% | Hatayspor 13%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 62%, Hatayspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.43 PPG, Hatayspor 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.