Alanyaspor 0-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Hatayspor travel to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 August 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor's home record at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hatayspor's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Alanyaspor have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 2, Hatayspor 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); they fail to score in 63% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 53% versus Hatayspor 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Alanyaspor 68% | Hatayspor 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.84 xG and Hatayspor 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.066 / defence 0.963 | Hatayspor attack 1.085 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.359. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Alanyaspor games / 38 Hatayspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 44% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Hatayspor 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. This conflicts with form data: Alanyaspor 40% | Hatayspor 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 44% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG Alanyaspor 1.84 / Hatayspor 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.066 / def 0.963 | Hatayspor attack 1.085 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Hatayspor xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Alanyaspor 0 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 44% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Alanyaspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Hatayspor?
Record (4 meetings): Alanyaspor 2W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 2W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Hatayspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.07x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
44%
2.25
29%
3.48
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.26
1.42
Hatayspor xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
4%
23.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.42 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 9D 17L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hatayspor's form line: 7W 6D 25L from 38 games, 0.71 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Alanyaspor are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatayspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Alanyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 3W 1D 15L from 19 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.63 scored and 2.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor in 29%.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Hatayspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 7W 6D 25L in their last 38 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.63 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2022, when Alanyaspor won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
3
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, Hatayspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Hatayspor 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Hatayspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 47%, Hatayspor 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Alanyaspor and 79% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Hatayspor in 68%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 26% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Alanyaspor's matches and 79% of Hatayspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Alanyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, as Alanyaspor and Hatayspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.84 xG and Hatayspor 1.42 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Hatayspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Hatayspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 44% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 27%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 68%, Hatayspor 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hatayspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 63% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.