Alanyaspor 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Alanyaspor take on Fatih Karagümrük.

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Match Analysis

Alanyaspor host Fatih Karagümrük at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 8). Kick-off is Friday 6 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across their last 10 games, Fatih Karagümrük have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Fatih Karagümrük's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 1.00 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Alanyaspor, 0 for Fatih Karagümrük and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Jan 2023, ended Alanyaspor 2–2 Fatih Karagümrük — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 51% versus Fatih Karagümrük 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 65% | Fatih Karagümrük 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alanyaspor surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Fatih Karagümrük have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.30 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.985 / defence 1.020 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.966 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.281. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 43 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 43.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 34% | Draw 34% | Fatih Karagümrük 32%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.96 | Draw 2.92 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.13. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though recent form (Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 50% (last 10 away games).

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