Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alanyaspor and Başakşehir meet at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alanyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's home record at Alanya Oba Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Başakşehir (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Alanyaspor, 1.40 for Başakşehir — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Alanyaspor, 4 for Başakşehir and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 60% versus Başakşehir 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 49% | Başakşehir 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.41 xG and Başakşehir 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.853 / defence 0.940 | Başakşehir attack 0.721 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Data: 43 Alanyaspor games / 44 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 50% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 23%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Başakşehir 4.35. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 60% | Başakşehir 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 50% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Alanyaspor 1.41 / Başakşehir 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.853 / def 0.940 | Başakşehir attack 0.721 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Başakşehir xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 January 2027 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 50% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Alanyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Başakşehir?
Record (10 meetings): Alanyaspor 4W | Draws 2 | Başakşehir 4W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.85) and Başakşehir's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.72x) against Alanyaspor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.67
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.26
0.85
Başakşehir xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.85 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alanyaspor come into this having played 43 games, going 10W 19D 14L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.63 PPG from 43 outings (20W 10D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Alanyaspor's home form reads 7W 7D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.33 points per game from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.72 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 10W 19D 14L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 20W 10D 13L in their last 43 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.33 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
4
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 4, Başakşehir have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Başakşehir see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 48%, Başakşehir 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Alanyaspor) and 62% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Başakşehir in 33%; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games; Başakşehir in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 48% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 62% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.