Alanyaspor 1-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alanyaspor face Antalyaspor.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Antalyaspor travel to GAIN Park Stadium to take on Alanyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Alanyaspor stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Antalyaspor — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Antalyaspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Alanyaspor) versus 0.90 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 3 for Antalyaspor and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 May 2024, ended Alanyaspor 1–1 Antalyaspor — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 55% versus Antalyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 47% | Antalyaspor 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alanyaspor surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Antalyaspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Antalyaspor surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Alanyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.55 xG and Antalyaspor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.795 / defence 0.866 | Antalyaspor attack 0.906 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.333. Alanyaspor's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.55. Antalyaspor's defence rating of 1.327 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alanyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 47 games and Antalyaspor's last 47.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.06 | Draw 3.84 | Antalyaspor 3.95. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Antalyaspor 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights