Adana Demirspor 1-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hatayspor at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor meet at Yeni Adana Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Adana Demirspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's away record: 3W 1D 1L from 5 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Hatayspor arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Adana Demirspor half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 64% versus Hatayspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 54% | Hatayspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.04 xG and Hatayspor 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.989 / defence 1.197 | Hatayspor attack 0.997 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.119. Data: 11 Adana Demirspor games / 11 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 29% | Draw 27% | Hatayspor 43%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Hatayspor 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hatayspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 40% | Hatayspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 29% | Draw 27% | Hatayspor 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.04 / Hatayspor 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.989 / def 1.197 | Hatayspor attack 0.997 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hatayspor xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 29% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 0.99x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (1.00x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
29%
3.43
27%
3.64
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.38
1.33
Hatayspor xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
8%
13.04
15%
6.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.33 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 4D 4L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 2.09 PPG from 11 outings (7W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 2.00 points per game from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.82 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hatayspor in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Hatayspor's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.40 PPG; Hatayspor away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 0-5 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
3
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-5 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 40%, Hatayspor 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Adana Demirspor and 20% for Hatayspor.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor in 60%; Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 40% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 20% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Adana Demirspor defy the odds to beat Hatayspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Hatayspor 1-0 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.04 xG and Hatayspor 1.33 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hatayspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.20 against Hatayspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.89, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 29% | Draw 27% | Hatayspor 43%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Adana Demirspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 54%, Hatayspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hatayspor arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Adana Demirspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.