Adana Demirspor 0-0 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodrum FK at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Bodrum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Adana Stadyumu plays host to Adana Demirspor versus Bodrum FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Adana Demirspor (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 games at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Bodrum FK have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodrum FK's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodrum FK are 0.50 PPG clear of Adana Demirspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Adana Demirspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Bodrum FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Bodrum FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 58% versus Bodrum FK 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 62% | Bodrum FK 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.25 xG and Bodrum FK 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.776 / defence 1.531 | Bodrum FK attack 0.682 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.214. Adana Demirspor's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Adana Demirspor games / 24 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 35% | Draw 29% | Bodrum FK 36%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Bodrum FK 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodrum FK are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodrum FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Adana Demirspor 50% | Bodrum FK 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 35% | Draw 29% | Bodrum FK 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.25 / Bodrum FK 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.776 / def 1.531 | Bodrum FK attack 0.682 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Bodrum FK (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Bodrum FK xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Bodrum FK?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 0 Bodrum FK.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Bodrum FK part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Bodrum FK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 35% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bodrum FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Bodrum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Bodrum FK?
Record (1 meetings): Adana Demirspor 0W | Draws 0 | Bodrum FK 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Bodrum FK in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Bodrum FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (0.78) and Bodrum FK's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodrum FK's attack (0.68x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (1.53x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodrum FK Win
35%
2.83
29%
3.47
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.52
1.27
Bodrum FK xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.27 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Bodrum FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 0.38 PPG on a 2W 3D 19L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodrum FK's form line: 6W 5D 13L from 24 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodrum FK are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Adana Demirspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 0.33 PPG from 12 outings (1W 1D 10L).
On the road, Bodrum FK have gone 2W 2D 8L from 12 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Adana Demirspor are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 0.71 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodrum FK in 29%.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Bodrum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 3D 19L in their last 24 games (0.38 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 6W 5D 13L in their last 24 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Bodrum FK away?
Bodrum FK's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 0.33 PPG; Bodrum FK away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Bodrum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 4% of their recent games, Bodrum FK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Adana Demirspor
1
Draws
1
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Bodrum FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 0, Bodrum FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Bodrum FK last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-0 Bodrum FK.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Bodrum FK?
Bodrum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 58%, Bodrum FK 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Adana Demirspor) and 42% (Bodrum FK).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK in 33%; Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 42% of games; Bodrum FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Bodrum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 33% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Bodrum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 42% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Bodrum FK tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bodrum FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Adana Demirspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, as Adana Demirspor and Bodrum FK drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.25 xG and Bodrum FK 1.27 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bodrum FK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.53 against Bodrum FK attack 0.68 / defence 1.00, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 35% | Draw 29% | Bodrum FK 36%, with Bodrum FK to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 62%, Bodrum FK 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodrum FK arrived the stronger side — 0.96 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.