Adana Demirspor 2-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 51% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Adana Stadyumu plays host to Adana Demirspor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 18). Kick-off: Sunday 24 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Adana Demirspor have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Adana Demirspor at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Antalyaspor are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Adana Demirspor have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Antalyaspor managing 0 and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Adana Demirspor 2–0 Antalyaspor — a Adana Demirspor win.
The head-to-head data gives Adana Demirspor an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 64% versus Antalyaspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 64% | Antalyaspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.91 xG and Antalyaspor 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.237 / defence 0.852 | Antalyaspor attack 1.199 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.275. Data: built from Adana Demirspor's last 52 games and Antalyaspor's last 52.
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 51% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.96 | Draw 4.24 | Antalyaspor 3.93. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.91 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Adana Demirspor 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Antalyaspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Adana Demirspor's last 10 home games and Antalyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Adana Demirspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Antalyaspor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 18 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 51% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Adana Demirspor 1.91 / Antalyaspor 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.237 / def 0.852 | Antalyaspor attack 1.199 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Antalyaspor xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor FAQs
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 24 December 2023 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Adana Demirspor 2 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 18) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 51% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (1.20x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Adana Demirspor's last 52 games and Antalyaspor's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.24
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.21
1.30
Antalyaspor xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
4%
26.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.30 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 52 games, going 26W 15D 11L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.25 PPG from 52 outings (17W 14D 21L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 17W 5D 3L across their last 25 home games, a 2.24 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 25 away games (5W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Adana Demirspor are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.31 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor (Home) vs Antalyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 26W 15D 11L in their last 52 games (1.79 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 17W 14D 21L in their last 52 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.24 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 14 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won Antalyaspor 0-3 Adana Demirspor on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Adana Demirspor have won 4, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2025: Adana Demirspor 1-1 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 52%, Antalyaspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Adana Demirspor) and 36% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 44% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 36% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 68% of Antalyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Adana Demirspor edge out Antalyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Antalyaspor 2-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.91 xG and Antalyaspor 1.30 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.24 / defence 0.85 against Antalyaspor attack 1.20 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 51% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 25%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 64%, Antalyaspor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.