Adana Demirspor 1-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Ankaragücü travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 January 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 7W 2D 1L at Yeni Adana Stadyumu — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Ankaragücü have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ankaragücü's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Adana Demirspor 0.90 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Adana Demirspor, 0 for Ankaragücü and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ankaragücü trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 62% and Ankaragücü 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 62% | Ankaragücü 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.80 xG and Ankaragücü 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.224 / defence 0.959 | Ankaragücü attack 1.010 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.223. Data: 56 Adana Demirspor games / 56 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 50% | Draw 27% | Ankaragücü 23%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Ankaragücü 4.35. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 50% | Ankaragücü 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 50% | Draw 27% | Ankaragücü 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.80 / Ankaragücü 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.224 / def 0.959 | Ankaragücü attack 1.010 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Ankaragücü xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 50% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü?
Record (3 meetings): Adana Demirspor 2W | Draws 1 | Ankaragücü 0W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Ankaragücü (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (1.22) and Ankaragücü's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.72
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.99
1.18
Ankaragücü xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
4%
26.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.18 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 56 games, going 27W 17D 12L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ankaragücü sit at 1.18 PPG from 56 outings (17W 15D 24L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Ankaragücü — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 18W 6D 3L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ankaragücü have taken 1.11 points per game from 27 outings (8W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.23 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Ankaragücü in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 27W 17D 12L in their last 56 games (1.75 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 17W 15D 24L in their last 56 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Ankaragücü away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.22 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Ankaragücü been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ankaragücü in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Ankaragücü specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
0
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü?
From 4 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Ankaragücü have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Adana Demirspor 1-1 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 56%, Ankaragücü 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Adana Demirspor and 52% for Ankaragücü. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Ankaragücü?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Adana Demirspor's games and 67% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 52% of Ankaragücü's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ankaragücü in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.80 xG and Ankaragücü 1.18 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.22 / defence 0.96 against Ankaragücü attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 50% | Draw 27% | Ankaragücü 23%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 62%, Ankaragücü 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.