Trabzonspor 3-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trabzonspor face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 14 as Trabzonspor welcome Konyaspor to Papara Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Papara Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 4, Konyaspor 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 53% versus Konyaspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 47% | Konyaspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.68 xG and Konyaspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.176 / defence 0.736 | Konyaspor attack 0.946 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.346. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Trabzonspor games / 49 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Konyaspor 5.26. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 50% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Trabzonspor 1.68 / Konyaspor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.176 / def 0.736 | Konyaspor attack 0.946 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Konyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Trabzonspor 3 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 53% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Trabzonspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
Record (8 meetings): Trabzonspor 4W | Draws 2 | Konyaspor 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
53%
1.89
28%
3.56
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.62
0.94
Konyaspor xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
4%
28.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.94 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 49 games, going 21W 16D 12L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.24 PPG from 49 outings (17W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.61 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 14W 7D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.92 points per game from 24 outings (6W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 63%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 21W 16D 12L in their last 49 games (1.61 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 17W 10D 22L in their last 49 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.04 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Konyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Konyaspor 2-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 50%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 50% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Trabzonspor's games and 67% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 50% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Konyaspor 3-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.68 xG and Konyaspor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.18 / defence 0.74 against Konyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 19%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 47%, Konyaspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Konyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.61 PPG, Konyaspor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.