Trabzonspor 1-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kasımpaşa make the trip to Medical Park Stadyumu to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trabzonspor have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Medical Park Stadyumu this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Medical Park Stadyumu.
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Trabzonspor, 1.80 for Kasımpaşa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Trabzonspor lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Trabzonspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 61% and Kasımpaşa 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 52% | Kasımpaşa 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.27 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.026 / defence 0.859 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.915 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.103. Data: 23 Trabzonspor games / 23 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 45% | Draw 30% | Kasımpaşa 25%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Kasımpaşa 4.00. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 50% | Kasımpaşa 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 45% | Draw 30% | Kasımpaşa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Trabzonspor 1.27 / Kasımpaşa 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.026 / def 0.859 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.915 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Kasımpaşa xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 45% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (1 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.92x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.32
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.14
0.87
Kasımpaşa xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
7%
14.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.87 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 16W 6D 1L from 23 games, a 2.35 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 10L across 23 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kasımpaşa heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 7W 4D 0L from 11 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 2W 3D 6L across 11 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.30 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Kasımpaşa in 61%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 16W 6D 1L in their last 23 games (2.35 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.27 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 1-5 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
2
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Kasımpaşa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 54%, Kasımpaşa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Trabzonspor) and 36% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 54% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 36% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Kasımpaşa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Kasımpaşa 1-0 at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.27 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.87 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kasımpaşa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.03 / defence 0.86 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 45% | Draw 30% | Kasımpaşa 25%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 52%, Kasımpaşa 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.