Trabzonspor 1-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trabzonspor and Göztepe meet at Papara Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trabzonspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Papara Park this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Papara Park. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.
Göztepe have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Trabzonspor's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Göztepe's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Trabzonspor, 1 for Göztepe and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Göztepe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Trabzonspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Göztepe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 54% versus Göztepe 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 62% | Göztepe 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.24 xG and Göztepe 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.192 / defence 0.958 | Göztepe attack 0.863 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.195. Data: 64 Trabzonspor games / 26 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 65% | Draw 20% | Göztepe 15%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Göztepe 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 40% | Göztepe 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 65% | Draw 20% | Göztepe 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 56% | xG Trabzonspor 2.24 / Göztepe 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.192 / def 0.958 | Göztepe attack 0.863 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Göztepe xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Trabzonspor 1 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Göztepe part of?
Trabzonspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 65% chance of winning, Göztepe a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Trabzonspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Göztepe?
Record (3 meetings): Trabzonspor 2W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 1W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Göztepe in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Göztepe (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.19x the league average against Göztepe's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (0.86x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
65%
1.53
20%
5.12
15%
6.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.23
0.99
Göztepe xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
6.65
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
11%
9.42
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
2%
62.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.99 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Trabzonspor have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 9W 8D 9L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe's form line: 10W 7D 9L from 26 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Trabzonspor against 1.42 for Göztepe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Trabzonspor have posted 2.08 PPG from 13 outings (8W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Göztepe have gone 1W 4D 8L from 13 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.69 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 9W 8D 9L in their last 26 games (1.35 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 10W 7D 9L in their last 26 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Göztepe away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.08 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Göztepe in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Göztepe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Göztepe?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 54%, Göztepe 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Trabzonspor and 54% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Göztepe in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Trabzonspor's games and 69% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Trabzonspor's matches and 54% of Göztepe's.
Do Trabzonspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Göztepe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Papara Park, Regular Season - 29, as Trabzonspor and Göztepe drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.24 xG and Göztepe 0.99 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Trabzonspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.19 / defence 0.96 against Göztepe attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 65% | Draw 20% | Göztepe 15%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 62%, Göztepe 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Göztepe's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.35 PPG, Göztepe 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Göztepe (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.