Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Fenerbahçe at Papara Park in Süper Lig (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 17 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Trabzonspor — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Trabzonspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Fenerbahçe have recorded 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Fenerbahçe have posted 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fenerbahçe — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Trabzonspor, 1 for Fenerbahçe and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Trabzonspor 3–2 Fenerbahçe — a Trabzonspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Fenerbahçe trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 73%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 56% versus Fenerbahçe 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 58% | Fenerbahçe 69%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Trabzonspor surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Fenerbahçe have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 73% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.09 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.184 / defence 1.104 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.585 / defence 0.598. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.154. Fenerbahçe bring a tight defence (rating 0.598, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Trabzonspor's projected output down. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack rating of 1.585, which lifts their away xG to 2.02. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 64 games and Fenerbahçe's last 65.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 18% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 57%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 5.46 | Draw 4.11 | Fenerbahçe 1.74. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Fenerbahçe 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 30 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 18% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Trabzonspor 1.09 / Fenerbahçe 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.184 / def 1.104 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.585 / def 0.598 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Fenerbahçe xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Trabzonspor 2 - 3 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 30) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 18% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.18x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.60x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 64 games and Fenerbahçe's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
18%
5.46
24%
4.11
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.11
2.02
Fenerbahçe xG
5.46
18%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
13%
7.54
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
2%
41.13
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 2.02 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 64 games, going 31W 10D 23L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.42 PPG from 64 outings (49W 8D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 21W 5D 6L across their last 32 home games, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.47 points per game from their last 32 away games (25W 4D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.50 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Fenerbahçe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 31W 10D 23L in their last 64 games (1.61 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 49W 8D 7L in their last 64 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.12 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.47 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fenerbahçe have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2025, when Fenerbahçe won Fenerbahçe 4-1 Trabzonspor.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
1
Draws
6
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 3, Fenerbahçe have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 47%, Fenerbahçe 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Trabzonspor) and 56% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 47% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 56% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 68% of Fenerbahçe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Trabzonspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Trabzonspor 2-3 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.09 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.02 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe outscored their 2.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.18 / defence 1.10 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.58 / defence 0.60, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 18% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 57%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 58%, Fenerbahçe 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.61. Form held, and they took the win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.