Sivasspor 1-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sivasspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Fenerbahçe travel to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu to take on Sivasspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sivasspor have posted 4W 4D 2L at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sivasspor are significantly better at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Fenerbahçe's 2.60 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Sivasspor's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sivasspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Fenerbahçe in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Fenerbahçe have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Sivasspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 0–4 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 59% versus Fenerbahçe 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 52% | Fenerbahçe 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.57 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.224 / defence 1.064 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.573 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.179. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.573 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Sivasspor games / 66 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 31% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 47%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | Fenerbahçe 2.13. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 70% | Fenerbahçe 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 31% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Sivasspor 1.57 / Fenerbahçe 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.224 / def 1.064 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.573 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Fenerbahçe xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Sivasspor 1 - 3 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 31% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (7 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 3 | Fenerbahçe 4W.
What form are Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sivasspor's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
31%
3.27
22%
4.48
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
3.54
1.97
Fenerbahçe xG
3.27
31%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
14%
7.19
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
4%
23.50
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.97 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 22W 18D 26L from 66 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 52W 11D 3L across 66 games — 2.53 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.26 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sivasspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 13W 12D 8L from 33 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 25W 7D 1L across 33 trips, a 2.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.58 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 22W 18D 26L in their last 66 games (1.27 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 52W 11D 3L in their last 66 (2.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.55 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.48 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fenerbahçe have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Sivasspor
3
Draws
5
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Sivasspor 1-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 61%, Fenerbahçe 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sivasspor) and 48% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 42% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sivasspor's recent games and 48% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Sivasspor 1-3 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.57 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.97 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.22 / defence 1.06 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.57 / defence 0.82, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 31% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 47%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.