Sivasspor 0-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 12 as Sivasspor welcome Antalyaspor to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 31 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antalyaspor — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Sivasspor) versus 1.00 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sivasspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Antalyaspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sivasspor, 1 for Antalyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Antalyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 65% and Antalyaspor 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 52% | Antalyaspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.58 xG and Antalyaspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.901 / defence 0.894 | Antalyaspor attack 1.028 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.314. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Sivasspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Sivasspor games / 48 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 46% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Antalyaspor 3.45. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 60% | Antalyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 31 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 46% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Sivasspor 1.58 / Antalyaspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.901 / def 0.894 | Antalyaspor attack 1.028 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Antalyaspor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 31 October 2022 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Sivasspor 0 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 46% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sivasspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Antalyaspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.90) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
46%
2.17
25%
4.03
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.79
1.21
Antalyaspor xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
6%
16.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.21 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Sivasspor have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 16W 16D 16L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor's form line: 19W 12D 17L from 48 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.33 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sivasspor have posted 1.52 PPG from 23 outings (8W 11D 4L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 7W 5D 11L from 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.40 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 16W 16D 16L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 19W 12D 17L in their last 48 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.52 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sivasspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
2
Draws
4
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Antalyaspor have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Sivasspor 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 65%, Antalyaspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sivasspor) and 52% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sivasspor's games and 48% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sivasspor's recent games and 52% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Sivasspor 0-2 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.58 xG and Antalyaspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against Antalyaspor attack 1.03 / defence 1.22, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 46% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 29%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Antalyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Antalyaspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.33 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.