Sivasspor 1-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Adana Demirspor travel to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu to take on Sivasspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 outings — a 1.11 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's home record at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu: 1W 3D 1L from 5 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 3W 3D 3L from 9 Süper Lig matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.56 per game and conceding 1.56. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sivasspor 1.11 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.33 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sivasspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Adana Demirspor in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 67% and Adana Demirspor 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 56% | Adana Demirspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.88 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.111 / defence 1.237 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.013 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.137. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Sivasspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Sivasspor games / 9 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 48% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | Adana Demirspor 3.45. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 60% | Adana Demirspor 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 48% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Sivasspor 1.88 / Adana Demirspor 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.111 / def 1.237 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.013 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Adana Demirspor xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 48% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 1.56 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sivasspor's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
48%
2.07
22%
4.46
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
3.31
1.43
Adana Demirspor xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
4%
22.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.43 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 4D 3L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.11 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sivasspor's home form reads 1W 3D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.56 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sivasspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Sivasspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sivasspor
2
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Sivasspor 5-1 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sivasspor at 75%, Adana Demirspor at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sivasspor and 75% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sivasspor's games and 75% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sivasspor's matches and 75% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.88 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.43 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.11 / defence 1.24 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.37, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 48% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 29%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 56%, Adana Demirspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.11 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.