Samsunspor 1-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Samsunspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Samsunspor's home record at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Samsunspor, 0.90 for Adana Demirspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Samsunspor 1W, Adana Demirspor 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 3–2 with Samsunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 53% versus Adana Demirspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 41% | Adana Demirspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.50 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.906 / defence 0.808 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.969 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.237. Data: 32 Samsunspor games / 68 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 47% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Adana Demirspor 4.55. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Samsunspor 30% | Adana Demirspor 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 47% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Samsunspor 1.50 / Adana Demirspor 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.906 / def 0.808 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.969 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Adana Demirspor xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Samsunspor 1 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 47% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (1 meetings): Samsunspor 1W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 0W.
What form are Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (0.91) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.97x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 32/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.31
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.47
0.97
Adana Demirspor xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
5%
20.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.97 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 10W 8D 14L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Adana Demirspor's form line: 9W 13D 10L from 32 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.25 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.88 PPG from 16 outings (9W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 9D 7L from 16 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.50 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 10W 8D 14L in their last 32 games (1.19 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 9W 13D 10L in their last 32 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.88 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Samsunspor go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
1
Draws
0
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Samsunspor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 44%, Adana Demirspor 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Samsunspor) and 50% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Samsunspor's games and 69% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Samsunspor's recent games and 50% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, as Samsunspor and Adana Demirspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.50 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.97 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.91 / defence 0.81 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 32/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 47% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 22%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 41%, Adana Demirspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.19 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.