Rizespor 1-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rizespor host Eyüpspor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rizespor have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rizespor 1.00 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Rizespor, 0 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 57% versus Eyüpspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Eyüpspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.33 xG and Eyüpspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.931 / defence 1.135 | Eyüpspor attack 0.905 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.165. Data: 67 Rizespor games / 30 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 39% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Eyüpspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 80% | Eyüpspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 39% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Rizespor 1.33 / Eyüpspor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.931 / def 1.135 | Eyüpspor attack 0.905 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Eyüpspor xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Rizespor 1 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Rizespor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 39% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rizespor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Eyüpspor?
Record (1 meetings): Rizespor 1W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Rizespor and Eyüpspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.93) and Eyüpspor's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
39%
2.54
28%
3.63
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.53
1.20
Eyüpspor xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.20 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 4D 16L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.67 PPG from 30 outings (14W 8D 8L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Eyüpspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rizespor's home form reads 5W 4D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 1.36 points per game from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.60 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Eyüpspor in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Current Season
Eyüpspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 10W 4D 16L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 14W 8D 8L in their last 30 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.36 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Eyüpspor runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2026, when Eyüpspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Rizespor
0
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Eyüpspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 4, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Eyüpspor 0-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Eyüpspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 64%, Eyüpspor 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rizespor) and 43% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Rizespor's games and 57% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rizespor's recent games and 43% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Eyüpspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Eyüpspor 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.33 xG and Eyüpspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Eyüpspor attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 67/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 39% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 33%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 57%, Eyüpspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Rizespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.