Rizespor 0-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Başakşehir travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 October 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Başakşehir — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Rizespor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Başakşehir have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Rizespor.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 0–2 with Başakşehir winning.
It is worth noting that Başakşehir have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 59% versus Başakşehir 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 59% | Başakşehir 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.33 xG and Başakşehir 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.979 / defence 1.168 | Başakşehir attack 0.916 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.310. Data: 44 Rizespor games / 44 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 34% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 37%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Başakşehir 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Başakşehir lead the H2H ledger, but Rizespor carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 34% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Rizespor 1.33 / Başakşehir 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.979 / def 1.168 | Başakşehir attack 0.916 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Başakşehir xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Rizespor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 October 2025 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Rizespor 0 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Rizespor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Başakşehir part of?
Rizespor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 34% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rizespor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
Record (6 meetings): Rizespor 1W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 4W.
What form are Rizespor and Başakşehir in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.98x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.38
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.74
1.40
Başakşehir xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
10%
10.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.40 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor's recent record stands at 17W 6D 21L from 44 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 17W 9D 18L across 44 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.30 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 10W 4D 8L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 8W 2D 12L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.52 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 17W 6D 21L in their last 44 games (1.30 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 17W 9D 18L in their last 44 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Başakşehir away?
Rizespor's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.55 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Başakşehir runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Başakşehir won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rizespor
3
Draws
4
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Başakşehir have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 59%, Başakşehir 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Rizespor) and 54% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Rizespor's games and 54% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Rizespor's recent games and 54% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rizespor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, as Rizespor and Başakşehir drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.33 xG and Başakşehir 1.40 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against Başakşehir attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 34% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 37%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 59%, Başakşehir 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.30 PPG, Başakşehir 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.