Pendikspor 1-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ankaragücü at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pendikspor face Ankaragücü.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ankaragücü travel to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to take on Pendikspor in Süper Lig (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Monday 25 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pendikspor have gone 3W 0D 7L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pendikspor's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 4L across their last 7 home games (0.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ankaragücü stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Ankaragücü have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pendikspor 0.90 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Pendikspor trading profile (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ankaragücü trading profile (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 69% and Ankaragücü 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 56% | Ankaragücü 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.07 xG and Ankaragücü 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.693 / defence 1.460 | Ankaragücü attack 1.117 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.264. Pendikspor's attack rating of 0.693 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Pendikspor's defence rating of 1.460 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ankaragücü's projected output up. Data: built from Pendikspor's last 16 games and Ankaragücü's last 52.
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 18% | Draw 23% | Ankaragücü 59%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 5.53 | Draw 4.42 | Ankaragücü 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Ankaragücü (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ankaragücü at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pendikspor's last 7 home games and Ankaragücü's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pendikspor 57% (last 7 home games) | Ankaragücü 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 18 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 25 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 18% | Draw 23% | Ankaragücü 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Pendikspor 1.07 / Ankaragücü 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.693 / def 1.460 | Ankaragücü attack 1.117 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Ankaragücü xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü FAQs
What time does Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 25 December 2023 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü?
Pendikspor 1 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü part of?
Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 18) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 18% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pendikspor and Ankaragücü will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pendikspor's attack at 0.69x the league average against Ankaragücü's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Pendikspor's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pendikspor's last 16 games and Ankaragücü's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
18%
5.53
23%
4.42
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
3.13
2.06
Ankaragücü xG
5.53
18%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
13%
7.86
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
2%
43.46
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Pendikspor and 2.06 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pendikspor's recent record stands at 3W 4D 9L from 16 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Ankaragücü, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 5L across 16 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pendikspor on 0.81 PPG, Ankaragücü on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pendikspor have managed 1W 2D 4L from their last 7 home games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ankaragücü's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across their last 7 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ankaragücü come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pendikspor are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Ankaragücü in 62%.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
Pendikspor (Home) vs Ankaragücü (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pendikspor
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
❓ Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü Form FAQs
What form are Pendikspor and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 3W 4D 9L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Ankaragücü away?
Ankaragücü's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 0.71 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pendikspor
2
Draws
0
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Ankaragücü?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Pendikspor have won 0, Ankaragücü have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Ankaragücü last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2024: Ankaragücü 0-0 Pendikspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pendikspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pendikspor at 57%, Ankaragücü at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pendikspor) and 71% (Ankaragücü). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pendikspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pendikspor and Ankaragücü matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Pendikspor's games and 86% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pendikspor and Ankaragücü matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Pendikspor's matches and 71% of Ankaragücü's.
Do Pendikspor and Ankaragücü matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Pendikspor's recent matches and 86% of Ankaragücü's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pendikspor and Ankaragücü share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, as Pendikspor and Ankaragücü drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.07 xG and Ankaragücü 2.06 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ankaragücü landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.69 / defence 1.46 against Ankaragücü attack 1.12 / defence 0.99, drawn from 16/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 18% | Draw 23% | Ankaragücü 59%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 56%, Ankaragücü 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pendikspor 0.81 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pendikspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.