Konyaspor 1-3 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 31 as Konyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Konyaspor's home record at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Konyaspor) versus 1.20 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Konyaspor, 2 for Trabzonspor and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 54% versus Trabzonspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 45% | Trabzonspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.44 xG and Trabzonspor 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.955 / defence 0.995 | Trabzonspor attack 1.049 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.182. Data: 66 Konyaspor games / 65 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Trabzonspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 50% | Trabzonspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Apr 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Konyaspor 1.44 / Trabzonspor 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.955 / def 0.995 | Trabzonspor attack 1.049 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Trabzonspor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 3 Trabzonspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 40% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Konyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (5 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.95) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.39
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.67
1.23
Trabzonspor xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.23 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 19W 26D 20L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 31W 10D 24L from 65 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.28 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.31 PPG from 32 outings (10W 12D 10L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 10W 5D 17L from 32 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.71 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 19W 26D 20L in their last 65 games (1.28 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 31W 10D 24L in their last 65 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.31 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Konyaspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
2
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 3, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Konyaspor 2-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 53%, Trabzonspor 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Konyaspor) and 62% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Konyaspor's games and 66% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Konyaspor's recent games and 62% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Konyaspor 1-3 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.44 xG and Trabzonspor 1.23 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against Trabzonspor attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 40% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 30%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 45%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.28 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.