Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Konyaspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Konyaspor 0.80 PPG, Kasımpaşa 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Konyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kasımpaşa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Konyaspor: 4 wins from 9 previous clashes against 0 for Kasımpaşa, with 5 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Konyaspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 63% and Kasımpaşa 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Kasımpaşa 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.26 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.910 / defence 0.864 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.858 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.216. Data: 60 Konyaspor games / 60 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 41% | Draw 37% | Kasımpaşa 23%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.44 | Draw 2.70 | Kasımpaşa 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Konyaspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 41% | Draw 37% | Kasımpaşa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Konyaspor 1.26 / Kasımpaşa 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.910 / def 0.864 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.858 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Kasımpaşa xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor 1 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 23% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (9 meetings): Konyaspor 4W | Draws 5 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.91) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
41%
2.45
37%
2.73
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.17
0.90
Kasımpaşa xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
6%
15.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.90 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 18W 15D 27L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 15W 22D 23L from 60 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.15 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.53 PPG from 30 outings (12W 10D 8L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 10D 11L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.37 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Kasımpaşa in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 15W 22D 23L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.53 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
6
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 60%, Kasımpaşa 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Konyaspor) and 63% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Konyaspor's games and 60% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Konyaspor's matches and 63% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa finished level at 1-1 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.26 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.90 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 0.86 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 41% | Draw 37% | Kasımpaşa 23%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Kasımpaşa 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.15 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.