Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 16 as Konyaspor welcome Eyüpspor to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 December 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 5W 1D 4L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Eyüpspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.80 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Konyaspor have won 2, Eyüpspor 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 54% versus Eyüpspor 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Eyüpspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.76 xG and Eyüpspor 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.689 / defence 0.992 | Eyüpspor attack 0.663 / defence 1.612. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Eyüpspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.612 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Konyaspor games / 44 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 60% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Eyüpspor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 20% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 60% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Konyaspor 1.76 / Eyüpspor 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.689 / def 0.992 | Eyüpspor attack 0.663 / def 1.612 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Eyüpspor xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor is scheduled to kick off at 10:30 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 60% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Konyaspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Eyüpspor?
Record (4 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 1 | Eyüpspor 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Eyüpspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Eyüpspor (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.33
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.59
0.82
Eyüpspor xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
3%
33.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.82 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 12W 12D 20L from 44 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 26L across 44 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.09 PPG, Eyüpspor on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 7W 7D 8L from 22 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 3W 5D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.82 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 26L in their last 44 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.27 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Eyüpspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Konyaspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
1
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Eyüpspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 46%, Eyüpspor 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Konyaspor) and 50% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 32% of games; Eyüpspor in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 41% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Konyaspor's recent games and 50% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.