Konyaspor 1-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Beşiktaş meet at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 7D 1L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 4W 4D 2L at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 59% and Beşiktaş 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 54% | Beşiktaş 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.38 xG and Beşiktaş 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.853 / defence 0.950 | Beşiktaş attack 1.039 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.349. Data: 55 Konyaspor games / 54 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 38% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 35%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Beşiktaş 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 50% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 38% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Konyaspor 1.38 / Beşiktaş 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.853 / def 0.950 | Beşiktaş attack 1.039 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Beşiktaş xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Konyaspor 1 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 38% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Konyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (2 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.04x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.69
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.71
1.33
Beşiktaş xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.33 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 25W 17D 12L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 23W 19D 12L from 54 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.63 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 2.04 PPG from 26 outings (15W 8D 3L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 7W 11D 8L from 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.59 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 63%.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 25W 17D 12L in their last 54 games (1.70 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 23W 19D 12L in their last 54 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.04 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beşiktaş have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 42%, Beşiktaş 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Konyaspor) and 50% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Konyaspor's games and 69% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Konyaspor's recent games and 50% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beşiktaş defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Konyaspor 1-2 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.38 xG and Beşiktaş 1.33 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Beşiktaş attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 38% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 35%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 54%, Beşiktaş 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.70 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.